The Trump Problem

As I write this, Trump is awaiting arraignment in New York City for his recent indictment over the Stormy Daniels case. He currently faces at least one felony charge of falsifying records in the hush-money case, but the issue here may not be so much what he did, but whether or not this is the case that should be brought against him first, or even at all. Neither the Justice Department nor the New York state attorney general’s office would take the case, it has instead been brought back into public attention by Manhattan D.A. Alvin Bragg, as part of the city’s investigation into Trump’s past financial dealings.

Politics aside, there is also the precedent that a potential conviction of Trump could mean for future Presidents after they leave office. No past President, including Richard Nixon or Bill Clinton, has ever been charged with a crime. Many republicans and some media outlets including the Washington Post have raised the question of whether this is the sort of precedent that should be set with this case. As they recently pointed out:

Breaches of campaign finance law undermine democracy and deserve to be taken seriously. Yet the potential downsides of indicting Mr. Trump ought to be taken seriously, too. This prosecution is now bound to be the test case for any future former president, as well as, of course, proceedings against this former president in particular — of which there are plenty. Other investigations underway include Justice Department examinations of the Jan. 6, 2021, insurrection and classified documents discovered at Mar-a-Lago, where the possibility of obstruction of justice is particularly grave. These are straightforward cases compared with the one proceeding in Manhattan. A failed prosecution over the hush-money payment could put them all in jeopardy, as well as provide Mr. Trump ammunition for his accusations of “witch hunt” — in light of which House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-Calif.) was right to urge supporters to refrain from protesting.

Public perception and political strategy shouldn’t dissuade a district attorney from bringing a solid case, but neither should they persuade him to bring a shaky one. This prosecution needs to be airtight. Otherwise, it’s not worth continuing.

So the question remains: Is this the case that trump’s opponents want to hang their hopes on in preventing him from continuing his 2024 Presidential campaign and possibly getting re-elected?